You don't get extra credit for beating a team that was ranked at the time you beat them and isn't anymore. When referring to a "ranked" team, I'm using the end-of-the-year FBS rankings top 25. Important caveats: Some things to keep in mind. -3 points: Lopsided loss to an unranked team (21 or more).-2 points: Regular loss to an unranked team (20 points or less).-1 point: Lopsided loss (21 or more) to a ranked team.-1 point: Narrow win (8 points or less) over an unranked team.0 points: Regular loss (9-20 points) to a ranked team.0 points: Regular win (9-20 points) over an unranked team.1 point: Narrow loss (8 points or less) to a ranked team.1 point: Lopsided win (21 points or more) over an unranked team.2 points: Home/neutral win over a ranked team.I apply this to every game, add up their points and get their QG score. Here is a refresher of the value I assign to each game a team plays. Here are the important findings followed by the pick for every game. So with that as the backdrop, I've run the numbers on all 42 games (84 teams, yikes). How often does the team play a quality game when they step on the field?
In baseball terms, it's like looking at a team's ERA, not their win-loss record. A close loss to a ranked team is considered better than a narrow win over an unranked team. The team in each matchup with the highest QG score is the pick.Īnd wins and losses aren't the only determining factor. Add up the 11 or 12 games the team played and that is their "Quality Games" score. I look at every game a team played this year and assign it a point total. How do you compare teams you haven't seen play, and who don't have common opponents? Marshall or even games pitting known commodities like UCLA vs. Without my "Quality Games" system (I'll explain it in a second for new readers), I wouldn't have any clue who to pick in some of this year's bowls like Georgia State vs.
A way to pick these impossible-to-pick games without having to think about them. It's college football bowl season, and that means it's time to help you win your office pool with another installment of my still-unpatented "Quality Games" system.Īfter languishing in the middle-of-the-pack in my college bowl picks pool for years using just my dumb old brain and foolish old heart, I developed a system about seven years ago to give me a simple data-driven read on games.
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